Top Logistics Risks in 2025 and How to Prepare

As usual, the problems of 2024 have followed us into 2025. 

We already have tariffs, low demand, and rate hikes on the list of things to look out for in 2025.

As we wait to see whether Houthis will cease attacks in the Red Sea, what a new US administration does, and how China and the rest of the world respond, we need to strategize.

Planning for every possible outcome isn’t possible, but we want to gain the info needed to make better logistics decisions in the future.

All that said, let’s look at some of the top logistics risk factors in 2025.

Read About CBIP’s Global 4PL Logistics Services

Planning for any tariff scenario

There’s really no limit to the potential effect such a wide range of US-proposed tariffs could have on global supply chains.

Even if we don’t know what tariffs will be implemented, it seems likely that tariffs for products being imported into the US will indeed increase. 

One strategy to mitigate damage? Pay close attention to the US Harmonized Tariff Schedule code for your product — and country of origin. Those two elements largely decide whether a specific tariff applies to you. 

What can you do to help mitigate potential tariff costs? Get a bit creative. If you are able to reclassify your product based on composition or functionality, you may be able to save yourself a lot. 

As a longer-term option, you may also want to look into switching part of your production to countries with more favorable trade agreements with the United States. 

While this isn’t going to be an immediately viable option for many brands, tariffs tend to stick around once they pop up. If your brand is hit by tariffs, you may want to consider reshoring manufacturing as part of your long-term strategy.

US duty de minimus changes

Lots of changes stateside in 2024 as a new administration rolls in, although this one has been in the works for some time now. While totally getting rid of the de Minimus duty exemption, aka section 321, wasn’t a viable option, the US has opted for a much more direct approach to its problems.

The recent rule changes are specifically targeting certain types of goods coming from China. As of January 2025, the de minimus level for a substantial portion of products manufactured in China goes to zero.

That means that those affected by the new rules will no longer be able to import items under 800 USD into the USA duty-free and expedited.

The new ruling, combined with the IMMEX  program designed to restrict duty-free apparel imports, may make things tricky for e-commerce brands in 2025. However, there’s no need to panic. Be sure that you are working with logistics providers that understand the new rules and can provide you the flexibility to work around them.

Related: Why Did My Shipment Get Rolled and What Does That Mean?

Changing trade routes

Thanks to port strikes, tragic disasters, climate change, and geopolitical turmoil surrounding two of the world’s most-used canals, shippers rerouted a lot in 2024. While the drought in Panama has calmed, tensions in the region seem to be building, giving anything but confidence.

Uncertainty surrounding key trade routes and heightened demand in China’s e-commerce industry has led to a particularly strong year for air cargo demand growth. An estimated 50 percent of air cargo volume out of Asia in 2024 was taken up by e-commerce products.

Growth was particularly high at the end of the year, with December global rates at 11 percent growth YoY. 

Now that the pre-Lunar New Year shipping push is over, rates are expected to cool significantly. Plus, expectations about new US tariffs and De Minimus restrictions will slow down Chinese e-commerce exports, a large contributor to current air freight demand.

Experts expect that growth will slow to around 4 to 6 percent YoY. 

What might this mean for e-commerce brands? First of all, it’s likely that brands like Shein and Temu will change their fulfillment models to more ocean shipping. This could mean more demand for ocean freight and containers and more traffic on longer routes.

Provider shifts & rate hikes

Major changes among top logistics providers leave a lot of uncertainty about coverage and costs in the year 2025. 

The US postal service just changed up a lot of pricing structures, ie getting rid of ounce-based pricing, which will make shipping light packages a lot more costly. In the UK, you have the recent Royal Mail/IDS sale to Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky to worry about. 

Across the board, we are seeing logistics services consolidating and getting acquired by venture capitalists and the like. There’s a lot of concern whether those changes will lead to better quality, or just more money for shareholders. 

Your best bet in 2025 is a flexible logistics plan

Uncertainty about markets, trade wars, and geopolitics will make 2025 a particularly interesting year. The only way to plan for surprises is to have other options ready if something goes wrong.

That’s why we can help. At CBIP, we are fully invested in not just creating and managing logistics operations for you, but also continuously figuring out how we can plan for contingencies and protect your brand from the unknown.

If you’d like to make sure your logistics operation stays safe from disaster in 2025, get in contact with us for a free logistics consultation.